Twelve months ago the New York Red Bulls exorcised the Curse of Caricola by claiming the 2013 Supporters' Shield. A week-and-a-half ago they got rid of whatever phantoms had been infesting Red Bull Arena every November by (finally) winning a playoff game there, beating Sporting 2-1.
And now, this week, RBNY are 90 minutes away from taking care of a third long-running demon. D.C. United have been New York's most prominent MLS antagonist, going all the way back to the days of Raul Diaz Arce and Tony Meola and at seemingly all spots in between. United always found a way to collect trophies while New York would collect only misery and dysfunction.
But... things change. The Red Bulls laid a 2-0 hurting on D.C. in Leg 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals, and it looks very much like RBNY should cruise into the Eastern Conference championship round.
Here's what to expect from Leg 2 this Saturday (2:30 pm ET; NBC, UDN, stream on NBC LiveExtra):
Overload the flanks and punish overlaps
The tenor of Leg 1 changed about 20 minutes in, when the Red Bulls started pushing both fullbacks (but primarily right back Richard Eckersley) way up the field to not just support the midfield, but actually provide some attacking verve in the final third. United had been game up to that point; they were meat after it.
It was a bizarre turn of events because D.C. have thrived all year on their ability to punish teams that push their fullbacks way up. All three of United's forwards - Fabian Espindola, Eddie Johnson and Luis Silva - are comfortable operating from out wide, and when they flare out to the touchlines and swap positions both with themselves and with the wingers, it's generally caused a ton of confusion in opposing defenses.
It's beautiful when it works:
The problem in Leg 1 is that it just didn't work. New York completely overran the D.C. central midfield, pushing them deep and disconnecting them from the forward line, while dominating them in useful possession. That forced United's wingers - Chris Pontius and Nick DeLeon - to drop deeper and more central, robbing the attack of the any kind of flexibility or invention.
It ended up being "All Fabi & EJ or Nothing", and "nothing" turned out to be the correct answer.
Now, there were some mitigating factors. Perry Kitchen and Davy Arnaud played, combined, probably their worst game of the year. Sean Franklin was on the bench for the vast majority of the game as well, and when Chris Rolfe came on for Pontius at the end, United were much more cohesive and fluid with the ball. There were some encouraging signs, for sure.
But this is a deep, deep hole. The Red Bulls are 8-1-1 with Dax McCarty and Eric Alexander in central midfield together - and yeah, they're going to start together in this one - and they've scored in every single one of those games. If New York keep that streak alive and manage a single goal in this one, that means United have to tally four thanks to the away goals rule.
Tactical Outlook: 4-4-2 with a more aggressive, attacking bent from the wingers
X-factor: Could Collin Martin play a role in this one? He's one of the few D.C. players capable of real creativity in the central channel, so with RBNY doing such a good job of shutting down the flanks last time this might be the youngster's chance to shine. It would be a serious toss of the dice from Ben Olsen though - and a serious long-shot.
Keep on keepin' on
I've been banging on about the McCarty & Alexaner pairing in central midfield for two months now. You're probably sick of it if you've been reading my stuff.
But I have to keep going on it because it's so important, as they've changed RBNY from mid-season also-rans to postseason contenders. Central midfield is, by and large, where games take their shape and identity, and these two guys have allowed New York have a legit say on both of those issues every time out.
The counting stats are here:
In the 10 games (including two playoff games) these two guys have played together in central midfield, New York have scored 20 goals and allowed 10.
In the other 26 games this season, they've scored 39 and allowed 40. This team has become significantly more dangerous in attack, but it's in defense where they've made the real difference. The back line is protected in a way it wasn't earlier in the season because the central midfield stays tight and connected:
You can see how much of what New York does runs through the pair of them. Mike Petke basically has the backline ignoring each other and doing everything they can to play through McCarty, in particular.
This is where D.C. have to find a way to get some pressure. They had a few good moments early in the game with Johnson dropping deep to manhandle the smaller New York midfielders, but eventually the Red Bulls were able to play through and - more often - around that.
And when that happened, the game got spread out and United's defenders got isolated. And Thierry Henry got time on the ball pinching in from the left:
You thought it was gonna be the assist, right? Everybody remembers that (as they should), and the performance of New York's attacking trio of Henry, Peguy Luyindula and Bradley Wright-Phillips was the definitive difference between the two teams on the day.
But soccer's a team game, and the attackers only get to shine when the central midfielders do their job. That's the script McCarty and Alexander are writing now, pretty much every time they set foot out on the field.
